ProHealth health Vitamin and Natural Supplement Store and Health
Home  |  Log In  |  My Account  |  View Cart  View Your ProHealth Vitamin and Supplement Shopping Cart
800-366-6056  |  Contact Us  |  Help
Facebook Google Plus
Fibromyalgia  Chronic Fatigue Syndrome & M.E.  Lyme Disease  Natural Wellness  Supplement News  Forums  Our Story
Store     Brands   |   A-Z Index   |   Best Sellers   |   New Products   |   Deals & Specials   |   Under $10   |   SmartSavings Club

Trending News

SURVEY: Cognitive Impairment II

Top 3 Nutrients to Detox the Liver and Soothe Digestion

Natural Bladder Control, Go Less and Live More

Top Vitamin and Mineral Deficiencies — Are You at Risk?

Vital Molecule Increases Cellular Energy and Improves Cognitive Function

Omega Fix for Obesity: How the Right Fats Fight Fat

How Pomegranate May Protect Against Cancer

Trimming the spare tire: Canola oil may cut belly fat

The Onion: Cancer Fighter and Food Preserver

Safely Reduce a Common Cause of Stomach Distress

 
Print Page
Email Article

Hindsight Bias - Not Just a Convenient Memory Enhancer but an Important Part of an Efficient Memory System

  [ 43 votes ]   [ Discuss This Article ]
By News Release • www.ProHealth.com • May 15, 2000


Researchers in the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) research group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany, have developed a model of hindsight bias called Reconstruction After Feedback with Take the Best (RAFT). Drs. Ulrich Hoffrage, Ralph Hertwig and Gerd Gigerenzer, authors of the RAFT model, published their research in the May issue of the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, published by the American Psychological Association.

Hindsight bias can occur when people make a judgment or choice and are later asked to recall their judgment. If, in the interim, they're told what the correct judgment would have been, their memory of their own judgment may become biased toward the new information. For instance, suppose a person was asked to estimate how many votes John McCain would get in the Michigan primaries. If before the election, he estimated 30%, and then learned that the actual figure was 50%, he may later recall that his answer was 40%.

The basic idea of the RAFT model is that any feedback or correct information a person receives after he has given his initial judgment automatically updates the knowledge base underlying the initial judgment. If a person cannot remember this initial judgment, he will reconstruct it from what he currently knows about the situation. And what he currently knows is the updated version of what he used to know. So while feedback does not directly affect a person's memory for the original response, it indirectly affects the memory by updating the knowledge used to reconstruct the response. Rather than thinking of hindsight bias as a flaw of human cognition, as previous research suggests, Hoffrage, et al. argue that it's a by-product of an adaptive mechanism – one that makes human memory more efficient.

To test their RAFT model, the researchers set up experiments in which, for instance, 80 student volunteers at the University of Chicago were provided with nutrition information about certain foods such as fat content, number of calories and protein content. Then participants were shown a list of the same foods split into pairs and the researchers asked them to decide which item in the pair had the higher cholesterol content. They were also asked how much confidence they had in their choice. Either a day or a week later they returned to the laboratory and were asked to recall the decisions they made about the food-item pairs and how confident they were in their decisions. Some participants were simply asked to recall their earlier decision. Others first got to see the actual cholesterol content of each food item and were then asked to recall their earlier answers.

Consistent with the model, the researchers found that knowledge of nutrition values was updated such that it was more consistent with the feedback (i.e., the actual cholesterol content), whereas this knowledge remained unchanged when no feedback was given. Based upon these results, the RAFT model was able to make precise predictions about when hindsight bias occurs. In fact, the researchers found that the model's predictions were accurate up to 80 percent of the time. Furthermore, when the researchers reminded participants of the cues they originally used to make their decisions, the incidence of hindsight bias dropped.

"RAFT is the first process model that is able to predict for an individual item of an individual participant whether hindsight bias will occur, disappear or even reverse," states lead author Hoffrage. "It is a cheap price we have to pay for a much larger gain: a well functioning memory that is able to forget what we do not need, such as outdated knowledge, and constantly updates our knowledge by increasing the accuracy of our inferences."


Source: EurekAlert!




Post a Comment

Featured Products From the ProHealth Store
Ultra ATP+, Double Strength Mitochondria Ignite™ with NT Factor® Ultra EPA  - Fish Oil


Article Comments



Be the first to comment on this article!

Post a Comment


 
Natural Pain Relief Supplements

Featured Products

Energy NADH™ 12.5mg Energy NADH™ 12.5mg
Improve Energy & Cognitive Function
Optimized Curcumin Longvida® Optimized Curcumin Longvida®
Supports Cognition, Memory & Overall Health
FibroSleep™ FibroSleep™
The All-in-One Natural Sleep Aid
Vitamin D3 Extreme™ Vitamin D3 Extreme™
50,000 IU Vitamin D3 - Prescription Strength
Ultra EPA  - Fish Oil Ultra EPA - Fish Oil
Ultra concentrated source of essential fish oils

Natural Remedies

Restore Youthful Cognition and Well-Being Restore Youthful Cognition and Well-Being
Fatigue & Fibro Fog: Could You Have a B-12 Deficiency? Fatigue & Fibro Fog: Could You Have a B-12 Deficiency?
The Fast-Acting Solution for Healthy Digestive Function The Fast-Acting Solution for Healthy Digestive Function
Running on Empty? Fuel Up with NADH Running on Empty? Fuel Up with NADH
Mitochondria-Booster NIAGEN® Shows Promise in First Human Clinical Trial Mitochondria-Booster NIAGEN® Shows Promise in First Human Clinical Trial

CONTACT US
ProHealth, Inc.
555 Maple Ave
Carpinteria, CA 93013
(800) 366-6056  |  Email

· Become a Wholesaler
· Vendor Inquiries
· Affiliate Program
SHOP WITH CONFIDENCE
Credit Card Processing
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTERS
Get the latest news about Fibromyalgia, M.E/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, Lyme Disease and Natural Wellness

CONNECT WITH US ProHealth on Facebook  ProHealth on Twitter  ProHealth on Pinterest  ProHealth on Google Plus

© 2016 ProHealth, Inc. All rights reserved. Pain Tracker App  |  Store  |  Customer Service  |  Guarantee  |  Privacy  |  Contact Us  |  Library  |  RSS  |  Site Map